Look for new faces and new political dynamics as President Joe Biden delivers this year’s State of the Union address, with some old problems brought back into painful focus by recent events.
The president will stand before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night for the first time since voters handed control of the House to Republicans in the midterm elections. Biden, like past presidents, will make the case that the nation is strong and good days are ahead. But when he crosses the halfway point of his term, he finds himself in a predicament.
After a series of legislative victories during the first two years of Biden’s term, Republicans are looking to undo some of his early victories. The recent mass shooting and a police killing in Memphis, Tennessee, have brought renewed focus to the issues of gun violence and excessive police force. And on the foreign policy front, Biden faces the formidable task of keeping a Western coalition — and the American electorate — united behind Ukraine in an effort to repel Russia’s ongoing aggression. He is also dealing with the US downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon that was floating across the US last week. On top of all that, a special counsel is probing how classified information from Biden’s days as vice president and senator ended up at his Delaware home and former office.
Some things to watch on Tuesday night:
Biden vs McCarthy
It will be new GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy wielding the gavel and sitting behind Biden this time instead of Democrat Nancy Pelosi. Watch the body language between the two — and how the Republican legislator treats Biden after some sharp GOP outbursts from the audience last year.
The president and the new speaker recently had a productive first meeting, but the country’s debt ceiling remains deadlocked. Republicans have refused to raise the statutory debt limit unless Biden accepts cuts in federal spending. Biden has said that raising the limit is not up for negotiation, and that Congress must pay the country’s bills or the country will face an economic disaster.
The Democratic president said last week that McCarthy made “absolutely off the wall” commitments to win the speakership. Biden’s rhetoric may not be as fiery as in the formal address, but watch him argue more subtly that there is a huge gulf between him and Republicans on the economy, health care and Social Security.
gun violence and policing
The parents of Tyree Nichols, who was fatally beaten by police officers in Memphis and later died, are expected to be in the audience for Biden’s address. So is Brandon Tse, who disarmed the gunman who shot and killed 11 people in California’s Monterey Park last month, as well as those who jumped during more recent mass shootings.
In his appearance, Biden talks about mass shootings and Nichols’ beating death after his previous efforts to address gun violence and police excesses were swiftly panned by resistance in Congress .
Biden has repeatedly urged Congress to ban assault weapons and is likely to talk about it again on Tuesday. He has also spoken about the death of black and brown people at the hands of the police but it is a sensitive matter for him. He is a longtime institutionalist who believes in the rule of law and has often said he believes in better equipment and training for police forces – not disbanding them.
new faces
As Biden addresses the nation, there will be many new faces in the crowd. The nation has had a new Supreme Court justice since Ketanji Brown Jackson’s address last year, and in recent years the presidents who have nominated them have participated in presidential addresses. There are also new MLAs from both the parties. Among those garnering extreme attention: Rep. George Santos, a New York Republican who has been in the news for embellishment and lying about his education, work experience, and other aspects of his personal and professional life.
chinese balloon
Look for Biden to talk about his decision on Saturday to shoot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon by the military, but how tough will he be on China?
His remarks on the balloons are likely to be part of a broader segment on countering China’s more assertive economic and military actions around the world, according to two administration officials who requested anonymity to preview the speech.
What next in Ukraine?
Biden has repeatedly said that the US is committed to helping Ukraine “for as long as it takes” to repel Russia. The United States has committed nearly $30 billion in security assistance since the start of the war.
Polls show Americans are largely in favor of providing support to Ukraine as it tries to defend itself from Russia. Administration officials, however, have made clear to Ukraine that Congress’s patience with the cost of war is not endless.
Watch Biden spotlight how Ukraine has been able to stay in a fight with the more formidable Russian military thanks to the generosity of the US and allies. He will also try to explain why Americans should commit to a war that will have an impact far beyond Europe.
classified document investigation
Will Biden bring it up? not likely.
After criticizing his predecessor, Republican President Donald Trump, over his possession of classified documents following his presidency, Biden now finds himself in the middle of a special counsel investigation into classified documents found at his home and former office space .
The White House makes the case that it is important to distinguish between Biden’s voluntarily turning over documents and Trump’s behavior, which refused to hand over hundreds of documents to the FBI that raided his home.
Biden is likely to steer clear of controversy in his address, as past presidents have tried to avoid mentioning whatever has gotten them in trouble.
2024 questions
Biden is expected to announce his re-election bid this spring, but there is a growing sense among voters that he should stick to one term. Will Biden address the question of re-election? Probably not. But his speech could well be framed as an argument for an additional four years of the Biden White House. And millions of viewers will be evaluating not only Biden’s words but his delivery to see whether it’s a good idea.
culture war
The new governor of Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, will deliver the Republican response to Biden’s address.
Sanders kicked off his tenure on hot cultural issues in schools by issuing an executive order targeting the teaching of key race theory in Arkansas schools and expressing support for legislation banning sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade. has stepped into the field in the early days of Category.
Don’t expect him to return to the national stage making the case that Democrats are out of touch with mainstream American values.
fence returns
It’s back: the tall, imposing security fence on the Capitol Complex.
On January 6, 2021, after an uprising at the US Capitol by Trump supporters who refused to acknowledge Biden’s election victory, a massive barricade was erected around the grounds as a temporary security measure.
It remained there for six months before finally being removed. It briefly went back before last year’s State of the Union Address, when Democrats were still in charge of Congress. And now it’s back again for this year’s address.
Learn how to navigate and strengthen trust in your business with The Trust Factor, a weekly newsletter that examines what leaders need to succeed. Sign up here.
